Despite being one of the nation’s most weather impacted areas, the Southwest Louisiana Economy is coming back and has potential to lead the state again.

LSU Economist Emeritus, Dr. Loren Scott, recently presented his annual Economic Forecast for the state and for each region.

A metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is a geographic entity based on a county(or parish) or group of counties with at least one urbanized area with a population of at least 50,000 and adjacent counties with ties to the central area. The economic
ties are measured by commuting patterns. They are defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and are used by the U.S. Census Bureau and other federal government agencies for statistical purposes. The Lake Charles MSA which is Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes, in July had recovered only 45% of the post 2019 job losses, which is the worst COVID recovery record in the state. The reason for that is, in addition to COVID impact, we were hit by two major hurricanes, a flood, and ice storm. The Lake Charles MSA recovery is about 15% short of the employment level in July 2019. That is the bad news but looking to the future our horizon begins to brighten. 

Dr. Scott is projecting 3,500 new jobs in 2024 and 3700 new jobs in 2025. In percentage terms, this would make the Lake Charles MSA the fastest growing in the state. He says such rapid growth will be generated by two main factors. 

Number one, continued recovery efforts and rebuilding from the previously mentioned natural disasters and Number two, an expectation that two to four announced LNG plants will issue final investment decisions (FID) soon. The insurance crisis has made the recovery far more difficult for our residents. However the economic base of this region has fully recovered from all the setbacks since 2019, so Dr. Scott expects that the feeder sectors- retail, services, healthcare, etc. will not be far behind.
Industrial projects underway and announced, show Lake Charles MSA had by far the highest value of announced projects that have yet to pull the trigger with a FID. The total for the Lake Charles MSA was $61.8 billion, more than twice the total for Baton Rouge and New Orleans combined. Notably, all but one of the Lake Charles projects is a proposed LNG export terminal. How robust out regional economy will be turns on how many, if any, of these LNG projects will declare an FID. They are: Cheniere LNG Expansion, Cameron LNG Expansion, Venture Global’s CP2, Commonwealth LNG, Energy Transfer LNG, Driftwood LNG, and Magnolia LNG. The one non-LNG project in the $61 billion is the $4.6 billion Lake Charles Methanol plant. This project has been on the list for several years but has managed to stay alive. The Port of Lake Charles recently extended the company’s lease through December 2024. The growing demand for methanol as a fuel for ocean-going ships may ultimately push this project to FID. Another new industrial project that is virtually certain to start soon is Project Cypress. This is a $603 million carbon capture hub, which is the largest single award from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act. 

For a region our size, the Lake Charles MSA enjoys an unusually high number of high-paying industrial jobs. There are almost 8,000 workers at the 23 members of the Lake Area Industry Alliance plus another 4,000 contractors that work at these
facilities each day. Even if no FID’s are issued over the next year, there will be still be a significant jump in industrial construction employment. Scheduled turnarounds will be bumping industrial contracting jobs in the area next year by 500-1,000.
There are also bright spots at Chennault International Airport, the SWLA Casino Market continues to lead the state, healthcare and agriculture and forestry are strong.

The forecast by Dr. Loren Scott lets us know we still have recovery work to do, but the potential for the next several years is strong.

Another view is from Moody’s Analytics, which said about the Lake Charles MSA: Lake Charles will pick up steam into next year. Rising demand for U.S. Natural Gas will be the main driver of improvement, with help from a slight uptick in gaming,
whereas a lack of new capital-intensive construction projects will be the biggest impediment to growth. Longer term, LNG terminals will form the backbone of the economy, helping Lake Charles keep pace with Louisiana.